Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending July 23, 2022

Our research team releases regular monthly housing trends reports. These reports break down inventory metrics like the number of active listings and the pace of the market. In addition, we continue to give readers more timely weekly updates, an effort that began in response to the rapid changes in the economy and housing as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Generally, you can look forward to a Weekly Housing Trends View and the latest weekly housing data on Thursdays with a weekly video update from our economists on Fridays. Here’s what the housing market looked like over the last week.

What this Week’s Data Means:

For the first time in two years, weekly data show that homes aren’t selling faster than in the prior year. They’re not yet taking longer to sell, but if recent trends continue, an increase in the time a home sits for sale is on the horizon. Low time on market signals ample demand from buyers relative to what’s for sale and it’s one of many factors that boost seller confidence that they will be able to sell their home at a good price in a reasonable amount of time. 

Although home prices have not retreated, homeowners seem to be aware of the shifting market dynamic, and it may already be affecting their willingness to sell. For the third consecutive week fewer homeowners decided to list their homes for sale. This has moderated the gains in active for-sale inventory, but fortunately for shoppers, the number of options available continue to climb. 

As inflation continues to exceed expectations, data show that the Fed’s policy adjustment, which continued at the July meeting in which another 75 basis point hike was announced, is cooling housing demand. The pace of new and existing home sales both moved lower in June and the forward looking pending home sales data suggests further cooling on the horizon.

Key Findings:

• The median listing price grew by 16.6% over last year. The typical asking price of for-sale homes was up from last year by double-digits for a 32nd week.  Even though asking prices continue to climb, with the median hitting a new high of $450,000 in June, data show that more sellers are finding that buyers are unwilling or unable to match their initial price in this market. As we noted in our June Housing Trends Report, the share of listings with a price cut was nearly double its year ago level even as it remains well below pre-pandemic levels. 

• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were down 6% from one year ago.  This week marks a third year over year drop in the number of new listings coming up for sale, suggesting that some homeowners may already be reacting to the rebalancing market. After several years of unquestionably calling the shots, sellers face a new market position. However, record-high levels of home equity mean that sellers remain in a good position.  

• Active inventory continued to grow, rising 30% above one year ago. With fewer owners choosing to sell now, gains in the number of options for shoppers have moderated. Still, the improvement for buyers essentially means they have four choices today for every three they had one year ago. Despite the improvement, our June Housing Trends Report showed that the active listings count remained less than half its June 2019 level and just shy of two-thirds its June 2020 mark. Put another way, today’s shoppers have more options, but the market needs even more before the selection is on par with the pre-pandemic or even the early-pandemic housing market.

• Homes spent the same amount of time on the market as at this time last year. This week’s data show that as for-sale inventory increases, the time on market gap relative to last year has closed. As recently as February 2022, the Realtor.com Housing Trends report showed that homes sold more than two weeks faster than in the previous year. The June Housing Trends Report showed that although homes spent 4 fewer days on the market than one year ago, they sat for slightly longer than in May stemming from seasonal and cyclical cooling. While time on market has yet to meaningfully increase, its current trend is one that should eventually help alleviate buyers’ sense that they need to rush to make an offer.

Data Summary:

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