How expensive will heating your home be in New England this year? Here's what we know

Summer isn't even over yet and New Englanders have already been heeding the warnings for months: If you want to stay warm in your home this coming winter, it's probably going to be expensive. 

Natural gas price volatility in the U.S. reached its highest level in 20 years at the beginning of 2022, according to the Energy Information Administration. Crude oil prices peaked to a 13-year high last March. The fluctuations have persisted, and it's an uncertain time in terms of utility bills. 

At Chair City Oil in Gardner, Massachusetts, manager Peter Tourigny said the market is "very unstable right now."

"What's going to come of prices, nobody knows," he said. "Between war and demand, it's very difficult to tell what's going to happen."

Those who use oil to heat their homes are watching with interest as U.S. oil benchmark West Texas Intermediate has been trading for prices much lower than earlier this summer. At the gas pump, costs have been coming down, too. It's an early, promising sign, but still too soon to tell what the reality could be in deep winter, when temperatures drop to the single digits.

Meanwhile, natural gas customers have a better idea of their surging expenses. They've seen the headlines telling of daunting new rate approvals — anywhere between 50% and 100% increases. A sticker shock, for certain. 

In Maine, the state Office of the Public Advocate announced Summit Natural Gas has requested a 200% increase in distribution rates, the largest ever proposed by a Maine public utility.

High prices over the summer too:New England was predicted to see nation's highest wholesale electricity prices this summer

Natural gas accounted for more than half of electricity generated in New England in 2021, according to ISO-New England, the region’s grid operator. In Massachusetts, for example, more than 50% of residents heat their homes with natural gas and about 25% with oil. 

Many blame the region's overreliance on natural gas as a leading reason why costs are so volatile here: customers' bills are heavily subject to changing demand and global market forces. 

US natural gas prices surge to 14-year high: What it means for your heating bill

"Increasingly, we are reminded — as we were during the pandemic, and more recently with the Russian incursion into Ukraine — that geopolitical events are quickly felt locally, exacerbating supply issues and increasing both supply risk and pricing uncertainty," ISO-New England wrote in its 2022 regional electricity outlook released in June.

Over the past two years, four out of seven independent service operators and regional transmission organizations in the U.S. have resorted to controlled outages because extreme weather limited energy supplies, ISO-New England said.

"Although that hasn’t happened here, the fact is New England’s grid is susceptible to risk from multiple factors throughout the coldest months of the year."

New Englanders warned about high winter heating costs

Speaking in August at an energy assistance forum in Fitchburg, Massachusetts, Alec O'Meara, spokesperson for Unitil, said, "If we have a message this summer, it’s to start thinking about and start preparing for this coming winter."

O'Meara continued, "Because there’s no reason to expect that what we’ve seen over the past year, with this high swing between summer and winter (energy costs) is going to change. We wanted to really get everyone starting to think about that earlier this year.”

Help is out there:With ‘challenging’ winter heating season predicted, programs offer financial assistance

How much will home heating oil cost this winter?

As seen recently at the gas pump, global oil prices have decreased after peaking again in mid-June. West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, was trading below $90 per barrel in August after trading above $120 in June, according to USA TODAY. The benchmark hit its lowest price since late January, before Russia invaded Ukraine, also in August.

Crude oil prices are down: Here's what it could mean for gas prices at the pump.

The Energy Information Administration has projected heating oil will decline to $4.42 a gallon by December, which is a still-elevated cost, but lower than spring's numbers.

At Bigelow Oil and Energy in Newton, Massachusetts, owner Nick Nicolazzo III said they're hearing from customers with price questions and concerns. 

"Our hope, of course, is that prices go lower so our customers are able to affordably heat their homes this winter," he said. "I also believe that high fuel prices are unsustainable for our economy."

More:Municipal light departments will continue to have lower rates

Nicolazzo worries that if oil prices go too high, there could be "demand destruction," when consumers change their behavior based on elevated costs. 

Gardner's Chair City Oil, along with many oil delivery companies, offers its customers price protection plans — by pre-buying gallons ahead of time to cover current customers and the potential for new ones, Tourigny said.

"We can actually set a capped price," he said. "It's going to save them if the prices get crazy high and stay high. And if they get lower, the price drops to that lower price. It's like a safety net for them so they have peace of mind."

Depending on the number of months purchased, Chair City Oil customers can buy home heating oil for $3.999 or $4.099 per gallon.

Chair City Oil serves upwards of 5,000 customers in Gardner, Hubbardston, Phillipston, Templeton, Winchendon, Ashburnham and Westminster. Tourigny said they have longtime loyal customers, but also see people who call around to companies each year and sign up based on pricing and their offered protections.

"If you can get into a protection plan like we offer, that's certainly sanity of mind," he said.

'Something we have never seen before:' Rhode Island winter heating costs

Rhode Island Energy, formerly National Grid, started warning its customers early about its Oct. 1 rate change, urging people to prepare for both residential and commercial rates that haven't been seen in the state in at least two decades, if ever. 

The warning rang true when Rhode Island Energy in July filed with state regulators rates that would result in most Rhode Island homes and businesses seeing a nearly 50% increase in their monthly electric bills starting Oct. 1, with energy rates in the state climbing higher than ever before.

“When prices went down to one of their lowest levels in years this spring, the winter forecasts did not look good. Unfortunately, those forecasts were accurate and the price of electricity this winter is something we have never seen before,” Rhode Island Energy President Dave Bonenberger said in a statement. 

In Rhode Island, about 54% of homes are heated by natural gas and 32% by heating oil.

This month, Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee announced a proposal to use $3.8 million in funding from the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative to provide direct rate relief to low-income Rhode Island residents who are most at risk of not being able to afford their electricity bills this winter.

New Hampshire residents see enormous electricity rate hikes

Customers in New Hampshire are seeing enormous hikes in electricity rates. 

As of August, Eversource's energy service rate rose by 112%, adding an average of more than $70 to a typical home's monthly bill, according to the company. Liberty Utilities' rate increased 100%. 

Letters to the editors:Reliance on natural gas, not greed, driving up electricity costs in NH

New Hampshire Consumer Advocate Don Kreis said in June he hadn't seen such a rate increase in his 23-year career.

“We've seen this coming for quite a while, I’ve been warning people we are looking at a very, very unhappy second half of 2022, especially the winter,” he said. “Natural gas is a volatile priced commodity. We knew the low prices wouldn't last forever and what’s happened is they have come roaring back.”

Surging electric bills to sting NH:Here's how much, why and how to get help.

Gov. Chris Sununu in June introduced an emergency energy relief program that included $7.5 million help low-income families and a $60 million fund to provide a bill credit to the roughly 600,000 residential electric ratepayers across the state.

Free energy efficiency home assessments for National Grid customers

Utility companies are deploying various programs to assist customers with volatile costs. 

Eversource encourages customers to enroll in one of its payment plans or assistance programs if they need help with their energy bill.

National Grid customers in Massachusetts who live in a one- to four-unit home are eligible for in-person or virtual home energy assessments to find ways to save on energy usage and bills.

For the assessment, National Grid sets customers up with an energy specialist who creates a customized energy report and provides no-cost energy-saving products, such as advanced power strips, low-flow showerheads and programmable thermostats.

“With winter energy rates expected to increase this winter, creating challenges for many families, now is the time to get an energy assessment done,” said John Isberg, vice president of customer solutions for National Grid New England. “Customers who get an assessment can put in place measures that can save them on their energy bills as our New England weather turns cooler.”

Can they shut my heat off if I don't pay? Protections in MA, NH, ME, VT, RI, CT

In many states, there is increased protection for customers during winter months so their heat isn't shutoff due to inability to pay. 

In Massachusetts, natural gas and electric companies cannot turn off either service between Nov. 15 and March 15 if it is needed for heat without permission from the state Department of Public Utilities. Similarly in Rhode Island, from Nov. 1 to April 15, disconnections are prohibited for primary heating accounts with arrearages of less than $500, or other accounts with arrearages of less than $200.

In New Hampshire, no residential customer can be disconnected during the winter period for non-payment of a deposit or portion of a deposit, according to the state Public Utilities Commission. In Maine, the period of protection is Nov. 15 through April 15, without approval from the Public Utilities Commission.

According to the Vermont Department of Health Code, if an apartment furnace breaks, for example, landlords are required to fix it. The inside of rental units needs to be at least 65 degrees if the outside temperature is below 55 degrees, per the health code.

Last winter, Connecticut had in place a home heating moratorium, barring shutoffs from November to May. In order to qualify for shut off protection, households needed to apply for a program through their local utility provider.

USA TODAY Network reporters David Dore, Alex Kuffner and Megan Fernandes contributed to this story.