Cuellar — the most conservative Democrat left in the House — stared down a threat from the same primary foe two years ago and won by less than 3,000 votes. As new questions of corruption hang over his head, the nine-term incumbent is facing a test of his local base’s loyalty that’s bigger than the national party’s deepening distaste for his corporate-friendly Democratic brand.

But Cuellar, in a rare interview with a national reporter following last month’s FBI raid, insists that his Lone Star State supporters have not abandoned him.

“People have not brought it up to me. They know my record. They know what I’ve done,” Cuellar said by phone. “They don’t want to have somebody from outside the district tell somebody how to vote here.”

Then Cuellar made a bold prediction: that he’d end up beating Cisneros next month in his newly redrawn district by a margin bigger than he did in 2020: “I think it’s going to be much better this election.”

His allies have made the same argument. They point to internal polling that’s shown him ahead, lower-than-expected early voting turnout in counties where Cisneros won last time, and a Cuellar operation that’s overall much stronger and more sophisticated than it was two years ago.

And dozens of interviews with voters at their homes and across polling sites here suggested that Cuellar’s allies may be right, no matter how fast Cisneros’ own circle has grown. It may take more than an FBI raid reportedly linked to a federal probe of Azerbaijan-connected campaign donations to boot him from his South Texas throne.

Sure, many Democrats in this proud border city are exasperated by the allegations against Cuellar, whose name is more than a fixture here; his brother Martin Cuellar is Webb County sheriff and his sister Rosie Cuellar-Castillo has served as county tax collector.

But those family ties matter, too. Voters are regularly reminded of the hundreds of millions of dollars Cuellar has steered here, first as a state representative and later as congressman. He was appointed to a role in then-GOP Gov. Rick Perry’s administration. His name is emblazoned on a local elementary school, as well as a park trailhead that he helped fund in 2010.

This year alone, Cuellar is seeking $34 million in earmarks to build local health clinics, upgrade a courthouse and restore a critical bridge to Mexico.

That old-school politicking is partly what’s made him the favorite of many local leaders, even after the FBI showed up at his home. Texas Democrats’ campaign team boasts a list of 171 Cuellar endorsements, from people like Laredo’s mayor, city council members, town constables, district attorneys, police chiefs and school board leaders.

Other Laredoans are showing their loyalty, too. In the month since the raid, Cuellar has received thousand-dollar-plus checks from a smattering of local luminaries. Some are big names here, like the president of the Texas Farm Bureau and the founder of a famous local chain called Palenque Grill, whose walls boast photos of Cuellar, sometimes standing beside Pelosi.

Sylvia Bruni, chair of the Webb County Democratic Party — who does not endorse in primaries — said local officials have tried to strike a careful balance when it came to the FBI raid, since there is no clear information.

“The smart and fair thing to do is simply reserve judgment until it runs its course,” Bruni said in an interview. “It’s a little troubling to see that it happened. I don’t think the FBI acts indiscriminately. But at the same time, there’s nothing out there right now.”

Despite the benefit of the doubt Cuellar tends to get, he’s waging a different race with Cisneros this time around, and not just because of the federal probe. His 28-year-old opponent now has far more widespread name recognition, a better-organized campaign and a clearer strategy to compete here.

Cuellar himself is mostly keeping his head down, sticking to heavy radio and TV ads. While his team said he’s knocked doors around Laredo, he had no public schedule for the entire holiday weekend of the festival. His aides turned down an in-person interview request.

Cisneros, for her part, is rallying volunteers to knock on doors in neighborhoods in both Laredo and San Antonio every day of early voting. She’s made herself abundantly available to the press and organized rallies with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).

An immigration lawyer who once interned in Cuellar’s Washington office, Cisneros had already won over some in the district before the FBI reports. That includes the editorial board of the San Antonio Express-News, which endorsed her over Cuellar before the news broke.

And Cisneros is quick to argue that Cuellar’s star-studded local following doesn’t mean he can convince the rest of Laredo to stand by him.

“He tries to say, ‘I have deep roots in Laredo,’ but then I think people also forget that — so do I,” Cisneros said. “It might not be these people that have this very important title or whatever, but their vote counts the same.”

While Cuellar didn’t march in this year’s Washington’s Birthday parade, Cisneros and her team worked the route, flyers in hand. At several points, people in the crowd jumped up to hug her or take photos.

Cisneros’ energy working the crowd was a stark difference from two years ago, when the Laredo-based attorney stood on the parade’s sidelines demanding a debate with Cuellar as he drove past on his pickup truck.

This year, Cisneros counted supporters like Cynthia, a middle-aged Laredo woman, who sat alongside her 13-year-old daughter. Cynthia, who declined to give her last name, said she’s voted for Cuellar in the past but plans to back Cisneros after his liberal challenger boosted outreach to the community.

Asked about the FBI raid, she said: “That’s why I say we need change.”

Cynthia’s going up against plenty of Cuellar loyalists, however. Rosalia and Grace Padilla, two sisters who have lived in Laredo for decades and have served in local politics themselves, sat on the parade route Saturday and insisted that Cuellar would still make an appearance.

Holding up their signs, they waited for him.

“I have known him since he was a little boy, I know his family. He’s going to win. He’s done a lot for us,” said Grace Padilla, 92, the oldest of nine children.

Another Laredoan, 55-year-old Mike Uribe, is still deciding who to support but referenced a Spanish phrase that seemed to underscore the fatalist logic of Cuellar’s campaign. The phrase, Uribe explained, roughly translates to: The devil you know is better than the one you don’t.

“Honestly, I still think he’s gonna win,” said Uribe, who works for a local grocery store.

“That’s district culture.”