Topline Results for the October 2022 Times/Siena Poll of Registered Voters

Oct. 18, 2022

View the survey’s cross-tabs among registered voters and the likely electorate.

Do you think the United States is on the right track, or is it headed in the wrong direction?
[IF NEEDED: Based on anything you may have seen or heard, if you had to pick, would you say right track or wrong direction?]

Date	Pop.	Right track	Wrong direction	[VOL] DK /REF
Oct. 9–12, 2022	RV	24%	62%	14%
Sept. 6–14, 2022	RV	27	60	13
July 5–7, 2022	RV	13	77	10
Sept. 22–24, 2020	LV	35	56	9
June 17–22, 2020	RV	31	58	11
Oct. 28–Nov. 1, 2016 Times/CBS	Adults	35	61	3
July 8–12, 2016 Times/CBS	Adults	26	69	5
May 13–17, 2016 Times/CBS	Adults	30	63	7
Mar. 17–20, 2016 Times/CBS	Adults	32	61	7
Jan. 7–10, 2016 Times/CBS	Adults	27	65	8
Dec. 4–8, 2015 Times/CBS	Adults	24	68	8
Note: Before 2020, the question wording was, “Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?”

Thinking ahead to the November general election, are you almost certain that you will vote, very likely to vote, somewhat likely to vote, not very likely to vote, or not at all likely to vote?

Date	Pop.	Almost certain	Very likely	Somewhat likely	Not very likely	Not at all likely	Already voted	[VOL] DK /REF
Oct. 9–12, 2022	RV	51%	31%	7%	3%	4%	1%	2%

If this year’s elections for Congress were held today, which party’s candidate would you be more likely to vote for in your district:
[READ LIST] [ROTATE RESPONSE OPTIONS]

Date	Pop.	The Democratic candidate	The Republican candidate	[VOL] DK /REF
Oct. 9–12, 2022	RV	42%	43%	15%

(If don't know) If you had to decide today, would you lean toward:
[READ LIST] [MATCH ORDER OF RESPONSE OPTIONS IN QCONGHR]

Date	Pop.	The Democratic candidate	The Republican candidate	[VOL] DK /REF
Oct. 9–12, 2022	RV	23%	21%	56%

If this year’s elections for Congress were held today, which party’s candidate would you be more likely to vote for in your district: [IF DON'T KNOW: If you had to decide today, would you lean toward …]

Date	Pop.	The Democratic candidate	The Republican candidate	[VOL] DK /REF
Oct. 9–12, 2022	RV	46%	46%	8%
Sept. 6–14, 2022	RV	46	44	10

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?
FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?

Date	Pop.	Strongly approve	Somewhat approve	Somewhat disapprove	Strongly disapprove	[VOL] DK /REF
Oct. 9–12, 2022	RV	16%	22%	15%	42%	6%
Sept. 6–14, 2022	RV	18	23	9	44	5
July 5–7, 2022	RV	13	20	15	45	6

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump

Date	Pop.	Very favorable	Somewhat favorable	Somewhat unfavorable	Very unfavorable	[VOL] Have not heard of	[VOL] DK /REF
Oct. 9–12, 2022	RV	22%	20%	10%	42%	<.5%	5%
Sept. 6–14, 2022	RV	23	20	9	44	<.5%	3
July 5–7, 2022	RV	21	18	8	49		3
Oct. 15–18, 2020	LV	33	10	6	48		3
Sept. 22–24, 2020	LV	33	11	6	47		3
June 17–22, 2020	RV	27	13	6	50		4

I know it's a very long way away, but in the 2024 presidential primaries and caucuses do you think you will vote in the Republican primary or the Democratic primary, or are you unlikely to vote in a presidential primary or caucus?

Date:	Oct. 9–12, 2022
Pop.:	RV
Democratic primary		34%
Republican primary		42%
Unlikely to vote in primary		13%
[VOL] DK/REF		12%

(Among those who plan to vote in the Republican primary) If the Republican 2024 presidential primary were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:
[READ LIST] [CHOICES ROTATED, WITH SOMEONE ELSE ALWAYS LAST]

Date	Pop.	Donald Trump	Ron DeSantis [Duh-San-Tis]	Mike Pence	Ted Cruz	Nikki Haley	Mike Pompeo [Paam-pay-ow]	[VOL] Someone else	[VOL] DK /REF
Oct. 9–12, 2022	RV	49%	26%	6%	4%	3%	2%	2%	8%
July 5–7, 2022	RV	49	25	6	7	6	2	1	5

Now thinking about the 2024 general election … if the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:
[READ LIST] [IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today, are you leaning towards one candidate?] [ROTATE OPTIONS 1 and 2]

Date	Pop.	Joe Biden, the Democrat	Donald Trump, the Republican	[VOL] Another candidate	[VOL] Not going to vote /wouldn't vote if those were the choices	[VOL] DK /REF
Oct. 9–12, 2022	RV	42%	43%	5%	6%	4%
Sept. 6–14, 2022	RV	45	42	6	4	4
July 5–7, 2022	RV	44	41	4	6	4

What do you think is the MOST important problem facing the country today?
[IF NEEDED: If you had to pick one that you think is the MOST important.]

Date:	Oct. 9–12, 2022
Pop.:	RV
[VOL] The economy (including jobs, stock market)		26%
[VOL] Inflation or the cost of living		19%
[VOL] Abortion		4%
[VOL] Immigration		5%
[VOL] Crime		3%
[VOL] Gun policies		2%
[VOL] health care		1%
[VOL] Education		1%
[VOL] Foreign policy		1%
[VOL] Russia/war in Ukraine		2%
[VOL] China		<.5%
[VOL] Climate change		3%
[VOL] Coronavirus		<.5%
[VOL] The state of democracy		7%
[VOL] Election integrity		1%
[VOL] Equality/inequality		1%
[VOL] Polarization/division		4%
[VOL] Racism/racial issues		2%
[VOL] Trump/Republicans		3%
[VOL] Biden/Biden administration/Democrats		2%
[VOL] Other (specify)		9%
[VOL] Refused		4%

Thinking about people you meet, do you think other peoples’ political views …
[READ LIST] [REVERSE RESPONSE OPTIONS FOR HALF SAMPLE]

Date:	Oct. 9–12, 2022
Pop.:	RV
Tell you a lot about whether someone is a good person		14%
Tell you a little about whether someone is a good person		34%
Don’t tell you anything about whether someone is a good person		40%
[VOL] DK/REF		12%

Have you had any disagreements recently with family or friends over political issues that hurt your relationship?

Date:	Oct. 9–12, 2022
Pop.:	RV
Yes		19%
No		81%
[VOL] DK/REF		1%

Which comes closest to your views, even if neither is exactly right?
[READ LIST] [ROTATE RESPONSE OPTIONS]

Date:	Oct. 9–12, 2022
Pop.:	RV
The government mainly works to benefit ordinary people		22%
The government mainly works to benefit powerful elites		68%
[VOL] DK/REF		10%

Which comes closest to your views, even if neither is exactly right?
[READ LIST] [ROTATE RESPONSE OPTIONS]

Date:	Oct. 9–12, 2022
Pop.:	RV
Presidents should do what they think is best, even if that might go outside of existing rules		34%
Presidents should follow existing rules, even if that prevents them from doing what they think is best		57%
[VOL] DK/REF		10%

Do you think America's political system can still address the nation's problems?

Date	Pop.	Can still address the nation's problems	Too divided politically to solve its problems	[VOL] DK /REF
Oct. 9–12, 2022	RV	43%	50%	7%
July 5–7, 2022	RV	41	53	6
Sept. 22–24, 2020	LV	54	40	6

Which comes closest to your views, even if neither is exactly right?
[READ LIST] [ROTATE RESPONSE OPTIONS]

Date:	Oct. 9–12, 2022
Pop.:	RV
American democracy is currently under threat		71%
American democracy is not currently under threat		21%
[VOL] DK/REF		8%

(Among those who say democracy is under threat) What one or two words do you think summarize the current threat to democracy?

Date:	Oct. 9–12, 2022
Pop.:	RV
[VOL] The government/government corruption/non-specific politicians/leaders		14%
[VOL] Republicans (include non-Trump named Republican leaders like McConnell)		4%
[VOL] Democrats (include non-Biden named Democratic leaders like Pelosi)		6%
[VOL] Donald Trump		8%
[VOL] Joe Biden		5%
[VOL] Socialism/communism		3%
[VOL] Nationalism/white nationalism/right-wing extremism		5%
[VOL] Violence/political extremism		3%
[VOL] PC culture/woke issues/cancel culture		2%
[VOL] Voter fraud/voting issues		3%
[VOL] Misinformation/conspiracies/election denial		3%
[VOL] Societal divisions/political divisions/polarization		8%
[VOL] The media		<.5%
[VOL] Immigration/border control		1%
[VOL] The economy/inflation		3%
[VOL] Other, specify		24%
[VOL] DK/REF		8%

(Among those who say democracy is under threat) Which comes closest to your views, even if neither is exactly right?
[READ LIST] [ROTATE RESPONSE OPTIONS]

Date:	Oct. 9–12, 2022
Pop.:	RV
We will need to go outside the law to fix our democracy		17%
We can fix our democracy within our laws and institutions		81%
[VOL] DK/REF		3%

(Among those who say we will need to go outside the law to fix our democracy) How do you think we will need to go outside the law to fix our democracy?

Date:	Oct. 9–12, 2022
Pop.:	RV
[VOL] Take up arms/violence/civil war		11%
[VOL] Improve laws/processes/general fix within the system		37%
[VOL] Other, specify		18%
[VOL] Refused		15%
[VOL] New leadership		14%
[VOL] Protest		5%

(Among those who say democracy is under threat) Do you think each of the following is a major threat, minor threat or not a threat to democracy?
[RANDOMIZE ITEMS]

Republicans
[IF NEEDED: Do you think each of the following is a major threat, minor threat or not a threat to democracy?]

Date	Pop.	Major threat to democracy	Minor threat to democracy	Not a threat to democracy	[VOL] DK /REF
Oct. 9–12, 2022	RV	28%	39%	29%	3%

Democrats
[IF NEEDED: Do you think each of the following is a major threat, minor threat or not a threat to democracy?]

Date	Pop.	Major threat to democracy	Minor threat to democracy	Not a threat to democracy	[VOL] DK /REF
Oct. 9–12, 2022	RV	33%	30%	34%	3%

Donald Trump
[IF NEEDED: Do you think each of the following is a major threat, minor threat or not a threat to democracy?]

Date	Pop.	Major threat to democracy	Minor threat to democracy	Not a threat to democracy	[VOL] DK /REF
Oct. 9–12, 2022	RV	45%	22%	31%	2%

Joe Biden
[IF NEEDED: Do you think each of the following is a major threat, minor threat or not a threat to democracy?]

Date	Pop.	Major threat to democracy	Minor threat to democracy	Not a threat to democracy	[VOL] DK /REF
Oct. 9–12, 2022	RV	38%	22%	37%	3%

The federal government
[IF NEEDED: Do you think each of the following is a major threat, minor threat or not a threat to democracy?]

Date	Pop.	Major threat to democracy	Minor threat to democracy	Not a threat to democracy	[VOL] DK /REF
Oct. 9–12, 2022	RV	33%	33%	30%	4%

The Supreme Court
[IF NEEDED: Do you think each of the following is a major threat, minor threat or not a threat to democracy?]

Date	Pop.	Major threat to democracy	Minor threat to democracy	Not a threat to democracy	[VOL] DK /REF
Oct. 9–12, 2022	RV	27%	34%	36%	3%

The Electoral College
[IF NEEDED: Do you think each of the following is a major threat, minor threat or not a threat to democracy?]

Date	Pop.	Major threat to democracy	Minor threat to democracy	Not a threat to democracy	[VOL] DK /REF
Oct. 9–12, 2022	RV	27%	35%	34%	4%

The mainstream media
[IF NEEDED: Do you think each of the following is a major threat, minor threat or not a threat to democracy?]

Date	Pop.	Major threat to democracy	Minor threat to democracy	Not a threat to democracy	[VOL] DK /REF
Oct. 9–12, 2022	RV	59%	25%	15%	2%

Electronic voting machines
[IF NEEDED: Do you think each of the following is a major threat, minor threat or not a threat to democracy?]

Date	Pop.	Major threat to democracy	Minor threat to democracy	Not a threat to democracy	[VOL] DK /REF
Oct. 9–12, 2022	RV	20%	29%	46%	4%

Voting by mail
[IF NEEDED: Do you think each of the following is a major threat, minor threat or not a threat to democracy?]

Date	Pop.	Major threat to democracy	Minor threat to democracy	Not a threat to democracy	[VOL] DK /REF
Oct. 9–12, 2022	RV	33%	21%	45%	1%

How much do you trust that the results of the 2022 midterm elections will be accurate?
[READ LIST] [REVERSE RESPONSE OPTIONS FOR HALF SAMPLE]

Date	Pop.	A great deal	A fair amount	Not too much	Not at all	[VOL] DK /REF
Oct. 9–12, 2022	RV	35%	34%	18%	10%	3%

When it comes to elections in the United States, what concerns you more?
[READ LIST] [ROTATE RESPONSE OPTIONS]

Date:	Oct. 9–12, 2022
Pop.:	RV
That some people will cast votes illegally		46%
That some eligible voters won’t have a fair chance to vote		48%
[VOL] DK/REF		6%

Which candidate do you think was the legitimate winner of the 2020 presidential election?
[READ LIST] [ROTATE RESPONSE OPTIONS]

Date	Pop.	Joe Biden	Donald Trump	[VOL] DK /REF
Oct. 9–12, 2022	RV	63%	29%	8%
July 5–7, 2022	RV	65	28	8

Thinking about a candidate for political office who you agree with on most positions, how comfortable would you be voting for that candidate if they say they think the 2020 election was stolen?
[READ LIST] [SHOW RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER FOR ½ SAMPLE]

Date	Pop.	Very comfortable	Somewhat comfortable	Not too comfortable	Not at all comfortable	[VOL] DK /REF
Oct. 9–12, 2022	RV	18%	21%	14%	40%	6%

Thinking about a candidate for political office who you agree with on most positions, how comfortable would you be voting for that candidate if they say they think Joe Biden was the legitimate winner of the 2020 election?
[READ LIST] [SHOW RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER FOR ½ SAMPLE]

Date	Pop.	Very comfortable	Somewhat comfortable	Not too comfortable	Not at all comfortable	[VOL] DK /REF
Oct. 9–12, 2022	RV	46%	22%	9%	18%	5%

Do you personally find the QAnon [Q-ANON] theories or movement believable or not believable, or do you not know enough to say?

Date	Pop.	Believable	Not believable	Don't know enough to say	[VOL] DK /REF
Oct. 9–12, 2022	RV	4%	37%	56%	4%

Have you ever heard of the movie “2000 Mules” [two-thousand mules]?
FOLLOW UP: Is that a lot or a little?

Date	Pop.	Heard a lot	Heard a little	Have not heard of this	[VOL] DK /REF
Oct. 9–12, 2022	RV	9%	17%	72%	2%

(Among those who have heard a lot or a little about “2000 Mules”) Do you personally think the findings in “2000 Mules” (two-thousand mules) are believable or not believable, or do you not know enough to say?

Date	Pop.	Believable	Not believable	Don't know enough to say	[VOL] DK /REF
Oct. 9–12, 2022	RV	34%	20%	45%	1%

What single news source do you turn to most often? This could include a social media site or a news site.
[IF NEEDED: If you had to pick just one.]

Date:	Oct. 9–12, 2022
Pop.:	RV
[VOL] Fox News		17%
[VOL] CNN		9%
[VOL] MSNBC		3%
[VOL] NPR		4%
[VOL] Talk radio		2%
[VOL] National television networks, like CBS, NBC or ABC		14%
[VOL] Local television news		8%
[VOL] National news organizations, like The New York Times The Wall Street Journal		6%
[VOL] Local newspapers		2%
[VOL] Social media		14%
[VOL] Friends and family		1%
[VOL] BBC		1%
[VOL] International source		1%
[VOL] Aggregation site (ex. Yahoo News)		2%
[VOL] Right-wing site		2%
[VOL] Doesn't consume news		2%
[VOL] Other (specify)		8%
[VOL] Refused		4%

Do you consider yourself Catholic, Protestant, Mormon, Jewish, Muslim, some other religion, or do you have no religious affiliation?

Date:	Oct. 9–12, 2022
Pop.:	RV
Catholic		19%
Protestant (Christian)		32%
Mormon (LDS)		2%
Jewish		2%
Muslim		<.5%
[VOL] CHRISTIAN (includes Baptist, Lutheran, Episcopalian, Methodist, Adventist, Presbyterian)		6%
Some other religion (specify)		9%
No religious affiliation		27%
[VOL] DK/REF		3%

(If Protestant, Christian, Mormon, Greek/Russian Orthodox or some other religion) Do you consider yourself an evangelical or born-again Christian?

Date	Pop.	Yes	No	[VOL] Refused
Oct. 9–12, 2022	RV	55%	41%	4%

Are you of Hispanic origin or descent, such as Mexican, Dominican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, or some other Spanish background?

Date	Pop.	Yes	No	[VOL] Refused
Oct. 9–12, 2022	RV	13%	85%	3%

Would you consider yourself:
[IF biracial or multiracial: What races would that be?]

Date:	Oct. 9–12, 2022
Pop.:	RV
White		71%
Black or African American		10%
Asian or Asian American		3%
Native American		1%
Some other race (specify)		4%
More than one race		7%
[VOL] Refused		4%

What is the highest educational level which you have completed:
[READ LIST]

Date:	Oct. 9–12, 2022
Pop.:	RV
Grade school		3%
High school		27%
Vocational or trade school		6%
Some college, no degree		17%
Associate’s degree		10%
Bachelor’s degree		22%
Graduate or professional degree		14%
[VOL] Refused		1%

Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, or a member of another party?

Date:	Oct. 9–12, 2022
Pop.:	RV
Democrat		31%
Republican		30%
Independent		29%
Another party		3%
[VOL] DK/REF		6%

(If not a Democrat or a Republican) And as of today, do you lean more to:
[READ LIST]

Date	Pop.	The Democratic Party	The Republican Party	[VOL] DK /REF
Oct. 9–12, 2022	RV	38%	39%	23%

Do you consider yourself politically liberal, moderate, or conservative?
[IF liberal or conservative: Is that very or somewhat?]

Date	Pop.	Very liberal	Somewhat liberal	Moderate	Somewhat conservative	Very conservative	[VOL] DK /REF
Oct. 9–12, 2022	RV	13%	12%	32%	18%	17%	8%

Did you vote in the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden?

Date:	Oct. 9–12, 2022
Pop.:	RV
Yes		88%
No		12%
[VOL] Refused		<.5%

(If voted in 2020) Did you vote for:
[READ LIST]

Date:	Oct. 9–12, 2022
Pop.:	RV
Donald Trump		43%
Joe Biden		46%
[VOL] Jo Jorgensen		1%
[VOL] DK/REF		10%

Party I.D. is self-identified party, without leaners; independents only include self-identified independents.

Methodology

The New York Times/Siena College poll of 792 registered voters nationwide was conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from Oct. 9 to 12, 2022. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.0 percentage points for registered voters and +/- 4.1 percentage points for the likely electorate.

Sample

The survey is a response-rate-adjusted stratified sample of registered voters on the L2 voter file. The sample was selected by The New York Times in multiple steps to account for differential telephone coverage, nonresponse and significant variation in the productivity of telephone numbers by state.

First, records were selected by state. To adjust for noncoverage bias, the L2 voter file was stratified by statehouse district, party, race, gender, marital status, household size, turnout history, age and homeownership. The proportion of registrants with a telephone number and the mean expected response rate were calculated for each strata. The mean expected response rate was based on a model of unit nonresponse in prior Times/Siena surveys. The initial selection weight was equal to the reciprocal of a strata’s mean telephone coverage and modeled response rate. For respondents with multiple telephone numbers on the L2 file, the number with the highest modeled response rate was selected.

Second, state records were selected for the national sample. The number of records selected by state was based on a model of unit nonresponse in prior Times/Siena national surveys as a function of state (as a random effect), telephone number quality, age, race, turnout and metropolitan status. The state’s share of records was equal to the reciprocal of the mean response rate of the state’s records divided by the national sum of the weights.

Fielding

The sample was stratified by party, race and region and fielded by the Siena College Research Institute, with additional field work by ReconMR, IPOR at the University of Roanoke, and the PORL at the University of North Florida. Interviewers asked for the person named on the voter file and ended the interview if the intended respondent was not available. Overall, 75 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone.

The instrument was translated into Spanish by ReconMR. Bilingual interviewers began the interview in English and were instructed to follow the lead of the respondent in determining whether to conduct the survey in English or Spanish. Monolingual Spanish-speaking respondents initially contacted by English-speakers were recontacted by Spanish-speaking interviewers. Overall, 6 percent of interviews among self-reported Hispanics were conducted in Spanish.

Weighting

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package. The registered and likely voter weights were calculated separately to account for the differences between registered voters and the likely electorate and to incorporate both modeled vote history data and respondent’s self-reported intention to vote. Survey weights were trimmed at the 99th percentile.

First, the sample was adjusted for unequal probability of selection by strata. For the likely electorate, the first-stage weight also incorporated the respondent’s modeled intention to vote, based on voter file data.

Second, the sample was weighted to match voter-file-based parameters for the characteristics of registered voters. The sample was also weighted to match census-based estimates for the educational attainment of registered voters and the likely electorate.

Third, the sample was weighted to match the characteristics of the likely electorate. The estimates for the characteristics of the likely electorate were based on multiple models. First, a model estimated the likely turnout by state, based on recent turnout and the competitiveness of the midterm race. Second, an individual-level model of turnout in 2010, 2018 and 2021 was used to estimate the probability that registrants would participate in the midterm election as a function of their demographic and political characteristics. Finally, the individual-level estimates were adjusted to match the expected turnout by state.

Fourth, self-reported vote intention was incorporated into the estimate of a respondent’s likelihood to vote. That was based on a model of validated turnout in Times/Siena surveys since 2016 as a function of self-reported vote intention and the pre-survey modeled turnout probability, including an adjustment for the higher turnout of survey respondents than nonrespondents.

Finally, the final weight for the likely electorate was equal to the initial likely electorate weight, multiplied by the final turnout probability incorporating self-reported vote intention divided by the initial modeled turnout probability.

Parameters

The following voter-file-based targets were used to weight the sample to match the characteristics of registered voters and the likely electorate:

• Party (NYT classifications based on L2 data and, in states without party registration or primary vote history, a model of partisanship based on previous Times/Siena polls)

• Age (self-reported age or voter file age if the respondent refuses)

• Gender (self-reported gender or voter file gender if the respondent refuses)

• Marital status (L2 model)

• Homeownership (L2 model)

• Metropolitan area (2013 National Center for Health Statistics Urban-Rural Classification Scheme for Counties)

• Region (Census Bureau definition, except Maryland, Delaware and Washington, D.C., reclassified as Northeast)

• Turnout history (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Vote method in the 2020 elections (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

The following census-based targets were used to weight the sample to match the characteristics of registered voters and the likely electorate:

• Educational attainment (NYT model based on A.C.S. and C.P.S. data)

The margin of error accounts for the survey’s design effect, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to survey design and weighting. The design effect is 1.31 for registered voters and 1.38 for the likely electorate.