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As Variants Have Spread, Progress Against the Virus in U.S. Has StalledSkip to Comments
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As Variants Have Spread, Progress Against the Virus in U.S. Has Stalled

U.S. coronavirus cases

Feb. 1

Apr. 4

United States coronavirus cases have increased again after hitting a low point late last month, and some of the states driving the upward trend have also been hit hardest by variants, according to an analysis of data from Helix, a lab testing company.

The country’s vaccine rollout has sped up since the first doses were administered in December, recently reaching a rolling average of more than three million doses per day. And new U.S. cases trended steeply downward in the first quarter of the year, falling by almost 80 percent from mid-January through the end of March.

But during that period, states also rolled back virus control measures, and now mobility data shows a rise in people socializing and traveling. Amid all this, more-contagious variants have been gaining a foothold, and new cases are almost 20 percent higher than they were at the lowest point in March.

“It is a pretty complex situation, because behavior is changing, but you’ve also got this change in the virus itself at the same time,” said Emily Martin, an epidemiologist at the University of Michigan School of Public Health.

Cases are up in states with strong variant presence.

Michigan has seen the sharpest rise in cases in the last few weeks. B.1.1.7 — the more transmissible and more deadly variant of the coronavirus that was first discovered in the United Kingdom — may now make up around 70 percent of all of the state’s new cases, according to the Helix data.

Michigan
Estimated share of cases from B.1.1.7
Feb. 1
Mar. 28
25%
50%
75%
New cases per 100,000
Feb. 1
Mar. 28
Virus cases over all
50
100
Minnesota
Estimated share of cases from B.1.1.7
Feb. 1
Mar. 28
25%
50%
75%
New cases per 100,000
Feb. 1
Mar. 28
50
100
Florida
Estimated share of cases from B.1.1.7
Feb. 1
Mar. 28
25%
50%
75%
New cases per 100,000
Feb. 1
Mar. 28
50
100
Massachusetts
Estimated share of cases from B.1.1.7
Feb. 1
Mar. 28
25%
50%
75%
New cases per 100,000
Feb. 1
Mar. 28
50
100
Pennsylvania
Estimated share of cases from B.1.1.7
Feb. 1
Mar. 28
25%
50%
75%
New cases per 100,000
Feb. 1
Mar. 28
50
100
Georgia
Estimated share of cases from B.1.1.7
Feb. 1
Mar. 28
25%
50%
75%
New cases per 100,000
Feb. 1
Mar. 28
50
100
Texas
Estimated share of cases from B.1.1.7
Feb. 1
Mar. 28
25%
50%
75%
New cases per 100,000
Feb. 1
Mar. 28
50
100
Illinois
Estimated share of cases from B.1.1.7
Feb. 1
Mar. 28
25%
50%
75%
New cases per 100,000
Feb. 1
Mar. 28
50
100
Indiana
Estimated share of cases from B.1.1.7
Feb. 1
Mar. 28
25%
50%
75%
New cases per 100,000
Feb. 1
Mar. 28
50
100
North Carolina
Estimated share of cases from B.1.1.7
Feb. 1
Mar. 28
25%
50%
75%
New cases per 100,000
Feb. 1
Mar. 28
50
100
California
Estimated share of cases from B.1.1.7
Feb. 1
Mar. 28
25%
50%
75%
New cases per 100,000
Feb. 1
Mar. 28
50
100
Arizona
Estimated share of cases from B.1.1.7
Feb. 1
Mar. 28
25%
50%
75%
New cases per 100,000
Feb. 1
Mar. 28
50
100
Note: There is not enough data available for a clear trend in states not shown above. Helix analyzes positive samples for an anomaly indicative of the B.1.1.7 variant, then uses results from sequenced samples along with data on prevalence of the anomaly to make inferences about how widely the variant might be spreading.·Source: Helix; New York Times database of reports from state and local health agencies

The vaccines authorized in the United States are very effective against the B.1.1.7 variant and will significantly slow virus spread once a large share of the population is vaccinated. Some experts estimate 70 to 90 percent of the population would need to acquire resistance before transmission would substantially slow. As of April 5, less than 20 percent of the U.S. population has been fully vaccinated against the virus.

Regional variants have also fueled spikes.

Several states in the Northeast also have among the country’s worst outbreaks now. Connecticut, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, among others, are all experiencing marked rises in case counts, and labs have identified both the B.1.1.7 variant and large shares of another variant, B.1.526.

The B.1.526 variant, which first appeared in New York City in samples from November, appears in two forms: one with a mutation that may help the virus evade antibodies and another that may help it bind more tightly to human cells.

The rapid spread of the B.1.526 variant, which made up more than 40 percent of sequenced cases in New York City as of mid-March, has prompted officials to say they believe it also could be a more infectious strain, though they say it is too early to tell whether it results in a more severe illness.

There is not enough genomic sequencing, the resource-intensive process required to discover that a case has been caused by a variant, to be certain how exactly much B.1.526 is spreading in the Northeast, but the available data indicates it is likely widespread.

Coronavirus variants in New York City

Other

forms of

the virus

Other

variants

of concern

B.1.526

B.1.1.7

Feb. 8 - 14

Feb. 15 - 21

Feb. 22 - 28

Mar. 1 - 7

Mar. 8 - 14

Mar. 15 - 21

Other

forms of

the virus

Other

variants

of concern

B.1.526

B.1.1.7

Feb.

8 - 14

Feb.

15 - 21

Feb.

22 - 28

Mar.

1 - 7

Mar.

8 - 14

Mar.

15 - 21

Variant estimates are made by a subset of samples submitted to the Pandemic Response Lab and are not necessarily representative of all infections in the city. The generalizability may change week to week.·Source: New York City Department of Health

The outbreak in the Northeast is currently much worse than it is in California, but California faces a variant of its own that makes up a large share of cases.

Studies have indicated the variant first discovered in California, B.1.427/B.1.429, may also be more transmissible than earlier forms of the virus, but it does not appear to spread as quickly as B.1.1.7. It was discovered in more than half of samples tested in Los Angeles in mid-January, suggesting that it may have helped fuel the state’s enormous winter surge, which hit Southern California hardest.

Coronavirus variants in California

Other

forms of

the virus

Other

variants

of concern

B.1.427/

B.1.429

B.1.1.7

Feb. 1 - 7

Feb. 8 - 14

Feb. 15 - 21

Feb. 22 - 28

Mar. 1 - 7

Mar. 8 - 14

Other

forms of

the virus

Other

variants

of concern

B.1.427/

B.1.429

B.1.1.7

Feb.

1 - 7

Feb.

8 - 14

Feb.

15 - 21

Feb.

22 - 28

Mar.

1 - 7

Mar.

8 - 14

Variant estimates are made using a subset of positive samples Helix sent to be sequenced. Helix’s testing is not representative of population distribution.·Source: Helix

Like the variant first discovered in New York City, the B.1.427/B.1.429 variant has also been seen in high levels in neighboring states, including Arizona, but does not yet make up a significant number of cases outside the region.

After months of progress, cases have risen again in most states.

Cases per 100,000

Ala.
Alaska
Feb. 1
Apr. 4
Red area indicates rise since lowest point of 2021
Ariz.
Ark.
Calif.
Colo.
Conn.
Del.
D.C.
Fla.
Ga.
Hawaii
Idaho
Ill.
Ind.
Iowa
Kan.
Ky.
La.
Maine
Md.
Mass.
Mich.
Minn.
Miss.
Mo.
Mont.
Neb.
Nev.
N.H.
N.J.
N.M.
N.Y.
N.C.
N.D.
Ohio
Okla.
Ore.
Pa.
R.I.
S.C.
S.D.
Tenn.
Texas
Utah
Vt.
Va.
Wash.
W.Va.
Wis.
Wyo.
Note: Shows seven-day average.

Higher vaccination rates among the country’s older adults — those prioritized first in the vaccination rollout — mean that some of those at highest risk of complications are protected as cases rise again. But almost 70 percent of the U.S. population has still not received a first dose, and only about half of those ages 65 and older are fully vaccinated. And in many states, those with high-risk conditions or in their 50s and 60s had not yet or had only just become eligible for the vaccine when cases began to rise again, leaving them vulnerable.

Hospitalization trends look very different across age groups.

In Michigan, Covid-19 hospitalizations are already more than three times higher than they were a month ago. Other states with rising cases are also seeing significant increases in hospitalized Covid-19 patients.

Nationwide, the uptick in the number of hospitalized Covid-19 patients is more subtle, but with a large divergence by age group: There is a clear recent increase in coronavirus hospital admissions among adults under 50. But among those in the oldest age groups, who are most likely to have been vaccinated already, admissions continue to decline.

Hospitalized Covid-19 patients

by day

Change in hospital admissions of

Covid-19 patients by age group

100,000

0

–20%

Adults under

age 50

50,000

–40%

Ages 50 to 59

Ages 60 to 69

–60%

Ages 70 to 79

Ages 80 and

over

–80%

Feb. 1

Mar. 1

Apr. 1

Feb. 1

Mar. 1

Apr. 1

Hospitalized Covid-19 patients by day

100,000

50,000

Feb. 1

Mar. 1

Apr. 1

Change in hospital admissions of

Covid-19 patients by age group

0

–20%

Adults under

age 50

–40%

Ages 50 to 59

Ages 60 to 69

–60%

Ages 70 to 79

Ages 80 and

over

–80%

Feb. 1

Mar. 1

Apr. 1

Source: New York Times analysis of data from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services

The vaccine rollout continues to speed up, and recent studies confirm that vaccines are effective against the coronavirus in the real world, giving experts hope that an end may be in sight. But with increased transmission, they say, comes a renewed need for caution in the immediate term.

“I think we’ve got to hang on just a little bit longer, being conservative and getting more people vaccinated,” Dr. Martin said. “I’d hate to see us having another hospital surge when we’re getting so close to being done with this. I’m definitely worried about it.”