In February 2020, the World Health Organization said a publicly available COVID-19 vaccine might be 18 months away — in other words, late summer 2021.
At the time, the prediction shocked the medical community. Vaccines historically take years to develop. But this year, in a stunning demonstration of global collaboration and innovation, the United States authorized two incredibly effective vaccines about 10 months after the WHO’s prediction, with more likely on the way.
The Biden administration announced Feb. 11 that it had secured 600 million doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine models, enough to cover every adult in America, for delivery by the end of summer — in a small twist of fate, the same timeline by which the WHO said a first vaccine delivery would be near-miraculous.
As a person whose career is marked by a passion to be guided by science, I marvel at the speed of this timeline. But as the director of the Illinois Department of Public Health, I’ve long since put such sentiment behind me to focus on the task at hand: steering our great state through the many months between today and August as we wait for the national vaccine supply to match demand. In addition to coordinating with the Illinois National Guard, the Illinois Emergency Management Agency and Illinois’ pharmacy and hospital network, my staff has made $25 million in state-funded grants available to our local health departments to beef up their staffing, training and rental space — all of which have been challenging obstacles for these departments to overcome.
To date, Illinois has administered the fifth highest number of vaccine doses in the nation, punching above our population rank to do so. Indeed, 12% of our population has received their first dose, which is 15% of our 16+ population — higher than New York and Texas, and tied with California and Florida at time of writing. Ours was one of the first states to announce that those 65 and older would be eligible for vaccine in Phase 1b, because the federal cutoff of 75 and older would deny vaccine to too many Black and brown Illinoisans who were dying at a much earlier age.
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But none of this changes a simple truth: There is not enough vaccine in America, or anywhere in the world. And because of it, residents across the nation are scrambling, desperate to secure a place in line for themselves and their loved ones.
The numbers are clear: As of Thursday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has delivered about 73 million doses nationwide, including roughly 2.7 million to Illinois. While the federal government earmarks which doses are first doses, which are second doses, which are for long-term care facilities and which are for large cities, like Chicago, let’s ballpark those numbers: To date, enough vaccine has gone out the door to vaccinate 36 million Americans, or roughly 11% of the population.
If I had my wish for the state of Illinois, every resident who wanted vaccine would have been vaccinated on Day 1. But while magic is not in my purview, understanding the perspectives of my patients is. And it’s clear as day that so long as more people want vaccine than can have it, there will be stories — in every state — of frustrated residents.
Already, though, there is new hope. The White House increased the vaccine pipeline to states by another 5% last week, a total of a 28% increase since President Joe Biden came into office. Additionally, the federal government is now sending additional vaccine doses directly to pharmacies, including approximately 340 new locations in Illinois, and launching a new Community Health Center vaccination program to direct additional vaccine to locations that serve our hardest-hit populations. On Friday, Feb. 26, the Food and Drug Administration will review the new Johnson & Johnson vaccine, which provided 85% protection against severe illness and 100% protection against hospitalization and death in its clinical trials, potentially adding another 100 million vaccine doses to the national supply by the end of June.
About a week from now, most residents with underlying health conditions, disabilities and comorbidities will join the eligible 1b population. This was a Jan. 12 federal government recommendation continued by the Biden administration — a bipartisan recognition of the necessity of protecting people with underlying medical conditions, who, as the CDC documents, are at much greater risk of requiring hospitalization for COVID-19. Indeed, Illinois will join a growing coalition of states, from Pennsylvania to Texas to Missouri, New York and Ohio, to expand the 1b category in accordance with federal guidelines.
This is a population that disproportionately includes people of color, and it is critical not only to open access to vaccine for them, but also to confront the myriad concerns that make many individuals from this population more vaccine hesitant.
It will be months before our supply comfortably outpaces demand —– an obstacle we always expected, and the very reason we have devoted so much time and thought to the phases of prioritization. Everyone deserves their turn to get the vaccine, and it’s my promise to Illinois that we will get there — as efficiently, quickly and equitably as we can.
Dr. Ngozi Ezike is director of the Illinois Department of Public Health.
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