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The benefits that could come with the power of quantum computing are frequently discussed, but are there risks, as well? Many tech experts say there are. The power of quantum computing can be leveraged for bad purposes as well as good, and even when organizations have the best intentions, there are potential downsides that must be considered.
From security risks to environmental and social costs, the possible risks of the rapid growth of quantum computing must be considered, and governments and industries must begin the work of devising solutions. Here, 13 members of Forbes Technology Council share potential risks that industries and societies could face with the rise of quantum computing and why they’re so concerning.
1. Modern Encryption Methods Will Be Rendered Useless
Financial technologies are completely dependent on modern encryption methods. Any password or key can be cracked by brute-force attack, but currently, computing power does not allow attackers to succeed in a reasonable time. With the release of quantum computing into the public sector, all encryption becomes useless, and currently, the industry has no answer on how to deal with it. - Pavlo Sidelov, SDK.finance
2. Web Interactions Will Be At Risk
The breakdown of prevalent cryptographic technology is an infrastructural risk. Most security technology is based on our current inability to quickly find the prime number factors of a key. Quantum computers can crack current cryptographic keys quickly, so every existing Web interaction is at risk. Motivated attackers can leverage a small number of quantum computers to cause widespread damage. - Atul Tulshibagwale, SGNL.ai
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3. DNNs Will Be More Difficult to Evaluate
If quantum computing is used for machine learning—quantum machine learning—then it could present the ultimate black box problem. Deep neural networks are notoriously opaque. Though there are tools to unravel how hidden layers in a DNN work, with quantum machine learning, it will be more difficult to evaluate DNNs and judge the decision-making process across data. - Somdip Dey, Nosh Technologies
4. Some Nation-States Could Be More Vulnerable In Warfare
While quantum has the potential to solve incredibly complex problems in society today, it will be equally capable of being leveraged maliciously by nation-states in warfare. In a scenario where a military force has access to quantum computing and its opponent does not, the information asymmetry will likely render the latter incapable of protecting its assets, and it will be out-strategized at every turn. - Husein Sharaf, Cloudforce
5. Encrypted Data Can Be Harvested Now For Exploitation Later
A new threat, known as “harvest now, decrypt later,” is a technique in which an attacker will attempt to steal encrypted data and hold on to it, potentially for years, with hopes that advances in quantum computing will eventually make decryption possible. Even years later, some encrypted content may still have value for the attacker. - Peter Gregory, GCI Communications
6. There May Be HR-Related Impacts
Most trend reports are talking too much about quantum computing’s possibilities and company adoption and not about the risks related to augmenting capabilities. From an organizational perspective, such a jump in productivity could be a risk to company project management due to overload and multitasking. If speed becomes the norm, we must be concerned about the HR-related impact. - Jacob Mathison, Mathison Projects Inc.
7. The Digital Divide Could Grow Exponentially
A huge societal risk of quantum computing is the exponential growth of the digital divide. The high cost of quantum computing will mean only the wealthiest will have access to its immense power, which could be used to exploit and accelerate the differences between the haves and the have-nots. People, companies or governments unable to afford quantum computing services may be left behind. - Malcolm Hawker, Profisee
8. Organizations May Struggle To Find Needed Helium
We tend to forget the supply chains needed for quantum computing. The technology relies on helium-based cooling to keep particles as stationary as possible. The limited quantities and price of available helium have two risks. First, companies must be sure they can source helium to operate their equipment. Second, there is a risk of concentration of capabilities with few operators. - Kevin Korte, Univention
9. Blockchain Technology’s Algorithms Could Be Cracked
The rise of quantum computing can cause risk to the fledgling blockchain and crypto economy. Blockchains rely on asymmetric key cryptography algorithms (RSA, EC). These algorithms can be cracked via quantum computing, resulting in malicious manipulations of the blockchain. This is one big potential risk that companies and consumers investing in blockchain technology could face. - Vishwas Manral, Skyhigh Security
10. The Costs May Be Prohibitive For Most Organizations
The cost of quantum computing is a potential risk. In an economic recession and with environmental, social and governance issues top of mind for most organizations, quantum computing is an expensive project to start up and maintain. The prices for a quantum computing campaign will almost certainly drop in the next decade, but organizations should strongly consider their reasons for pursuing quantum in a specific area before overcommitting to the technology. - Lewis Wynne-Jones, ThinkData Works
11. Businesses May Have To Upgrade Or Be Left Behind
One risk that companies could face with the rise of quantum computing is that their competitors will use it to outdo them. Quantum computers will be able to solve problems that classical computers can’t, giving businesses that use them a huge advantage over those that don’t. This could lead to a kind of “arms race” where businesses are compelled to upgrade their systems or face being left behind. - Leon Gordon, Pomerol Partners
12. There Are Security Vulnerabilities That Haven’t Even Been Discovered Yet
With unfathomable computing power, quantum computing has the potential to unhinge technology as we know it today. The biggest risk is that the consequences are not foreseeable today because bad actors will have an opportunity to leverage new capabilities to exploit previously undiscovered vulnerabilities. This is concerning, since even traditional cybersecurity is still neglected. - Roland Polzin, Wing Assistant
13. Finding Relevant Use Cases May Be Difficult
I think the biggest risk to quantum computing is finding use cases that matter and actually need quantum computing. The industry will also need to change how we write software to best utilize quantum. Absent these issues, we will see companies simply treat quantum with a lot of initial hype that devolves into a watered-down marketing term. - Stacey Shulman, Intel Corporation
