Prigozhin's Death Threatens to Upend Putin's Well-Laid Plans

The possible death of Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin on Wednesday is expected to have widespread repercussions, including possibly setting back Russian President Vladimir Putin's relations in Africa, where Wagner has engaged in numerous business dealings.

As of Thursday morning, Prigozhin's death had not been officially confirmed by the Kremlin or the Wagner Group, but he was listed as a passenger on a jet that crashed in Russia's Tver region on Wednesday, killing all 10 people aboard.

Prigozhin was once a close ally of Putin and his Wagner Group was instrumental in securing several key victories in Ukraine at sites where Putin's formal military struggled. However, Prigozhin publicly clashed with Russia's Ministry of Defense (MoD), and he eventually led a highly-publicized mutiny against Moscow in late June that was quickly called off the day after it began.

Following the failed uprising, many analysts predicted Prigozhin would concentrate his efforts in Africa, where Wagner has contracts in countries such as the Central African Republic and Mali.

Due to Putin's wish to establish stronger ties to Africa, Moscow will now be faced with difficulty in taking over Prigozhin's African operations, George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government Professor Mark N. Katz told Newsweek.

In recent years, Putin has made building closer relationships with African nations a priority of his foreign policy. Prigozhin's work in Africa has been central to this goal, which was witnessed by the Wagner boss' presence at a Putin-hosted summit with African leaders in July. The appearance came despite Prigozhin reportedly accepting being exiled to Belarus as a condition for charges being dropped against him for his failed mutiny.

Prigozhin was also thought to have been in Africa recently after a Telegram channel associated with Wagner published a recording of him on Monday from an unknown African country. In the clip, Prigozhin announced his fighters were on a new mission that would make "Russia even greater on all continents and Africa even more free."

In a Wednesday assessment of the situation regarding Prigozhin's possible death, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote that Putin "almost certainly ordered the Russian military command to shoot down Prigozhin's plane."

The think tank added that Putin "may have decided that Prigozhin had crossed a pre-established redline with his efforts to retain Wagner's access to operations in Africa."

The ISW said an agreement may have existed in the negotiations to end Prigozhin's rebellion against Moscow that required Prigozhin to "curtail Wagner's operations in Africa," and the video published Monday of Prigozhin in Africa may have broken such an agreement with Putin.

The ISW further detailed how Wagner and Russian insider sources reported that Russia's Defense Ministry has been working recently to establish new private military companies (PMCs) to replace Wagner in Africa and the Middle East. The ministry also reportedly recruited Wagner personnel for these groups, and "Wagner commanders indicated that two high-ranking Wagner officials joined the Russian MoD."

According to the ISW, "Prigozhin's alleged repeated attempts to prevent the Russian MoD from completely replacing the Wagner contingent in Africa" may have further broken conditions Putin placed on Prigozhin following the mutiny.

"The Russian Defense Ministry will undoubtedly try to take control of Wagner's operations in Africa either through inserting their own personnel directly into Wagner's leadership, folding Wagner operations into MoD-controlled PMCs, or finding people they can trust from within Wagner's ranks," Katz told Newsweek.

"The real question is whether anyone can fully replace Prigozhin's level of expertise about Wagner operations in Africa," Katz said. 'While acting on behalf of Moscow, Prigozhin may well have made a number of private deals with African politicians and security personnel which may not have been written down or recorded accessibly.

"We may be entering a confused phase in which there are a number of claimants citing deals with Prigozhin which the MoD may not know about—or want to know about. A period of reaching new understandings with the same people, or sidelining them and working with others, may now ensue."

"It could be messy for a while," Katz said.