Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

This morning Census released the 2023 state population estimates. The Census site has been down and I have been unable to access the data. However the Tennessee State Data Center has the topline state estimates on their site here. Using that information, we see that similar to last year, Census shows that Oregon’s population declined. Census estimates Oregon’s population fell 0.1% after a 0.4% decline last year. So while still a decline, a smaller one than last year. (While I trust the Tennessee State Data Center, and their Oregon numbers match what I can glean from Census’ social media, there is a small chance the numbers will differ once I can get the files directly off the Census site. I will repost should that be the case. UPDATE: As expected, the Tennessee data did match the Census data now that their site is up and running.)

In total, from 2021 to 2023, Census estimates Oregon’s population declined by 23,000 or 0.5%. Of course these new Census estimates are in contrast to the population estimates from Portland State’s Population Research Center. Their latest estimates showed Oregon’s population holding steady in 2022, following a downward revision, and then a moderate rebound in 2023. You can see the differences between the estimates in the first chart below. In 2023, the difference between the population estimates stands at 57,000.

In terms of the components, in 2023 Census estimates that Oregon’s natural population change was -4,200 as deaths outnumbered births, international in-migration was +4,300, and then net domestic migration was -6,100, for an overall annual change of -6,000.

In terms of annual growth rates, here is an updated chart out office uses regularly, along with our forecast. Our office’s baseline forecast is for a moderate rebound in growth in the years ahead.

Unfortunately, demographic data comes out infrequently and with a lag. As discussed in recent posts, we are just now analyzing the socio-economic patterns of migration in 2022. It will be another 10 months before we have any data on who moved in 2023, and then another couple of months to get the underlying microdata and analyze it and the like.

Given the noticeable differences between the estimates in recent years, it does give further credence to the possibility that Oregon’s population growth will not rebound even as slowly as it does in the baseline forecast. Our office has spent a lot of time over the past year thinking through and modeling the potential economic and revenue impacts if migration does not return. We spent time discussing this with the Legislature at the most recent forecast release as well. I will pull out that work and post it here in the coming weeks. None of this means we will suddenly shift our baseline forecast based on two years of different estimates. But it does mean we have to take that possibility more seriously, and to highlight the potential impacts.

Lastly, the Census site has been down today, but here is a state map of population change from Census to show the relative patterns across the country.