Playbook: Johnson: Biden’s having a ‘senior moment’ on Israel

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With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

DRIVING THE DAY

Last night on CNN, President JOE BIDEN made news by drawing a clear red line that Israel is rapidly approaching: He will halt shipments of bombs and other munitions to the Jewish state if it launches a major military invasion into the southern Gaza city of Rafah.

The White House has “made it clear to BIBI [NETANYAHU] and the war cabinet they're not going to get our support if, in fact, they're going into these population centers,” Biden told CNN’s Erin Burnett. “We’re not walking away from Israel’s security. We’re walking away from Israel’s ability to wage war in those areas.”

We’ll have more on the Biden-Bibi breaking point in a moment, but first …

Ryan and Rachael sat down with House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON for an exclusive hour-plus interview just moments after Johnson learned of Biden’s comments.

He was in a talkative mood. Earlier in the evening, he’d survived Reps. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) and THOMAS MASSIE’s (R-Ky.) motion to oust him as speaker — a move he told us he “didn’t think that they would go through with.” More on the vote from Jordain Carney

There’s a lot to unpack from our interview. And while we’ll bring you that full conversation tomorrow morning — including his thoughts on Biden and DONALD TRUMP, the Jan. 6 Capitol attack and the future of democracy — we wanted to share his candid and unrehearsed reactions to Biden’s comments with our Playbook readers right away.

“My reaction, honestly, was, ‘Wow, that is a complete turn from what I have been told, even in, you know, recent hours,’” Johnson said of the Israel aid pivot. “I mean, 24 hours ago, it was confirmed to me by top administration officials that the policy's very different than what he stated there. So I hope that's a senior moment.”

Johnson told Playbook that on Wednesday, he “was in the SCIF having classified discussions with some top administration officials,” and was told that “there would be no delay whatsoever” in the “delivery of weapons to Israel.”

That same day, Johnson said he spoke with Netanyahu and “he described exactly what was happening before the news was confirmed.”

“And then I went straight to the White House and I said … ‘Somebody's going to have to explain this to me, because it's very different than what I was told.’ And they said, ‘Oh, this has nothing to do with the supplemental package that you all passed. … So this statement by the president tonight, I just want to — I hope, I believe he’s off-script. I don’t think that's something that staff told him to say.”

But if Biden did mean what he said, Johnson said he feels betrayed.

“We’ve been very deliberate. We’ve been very open — very much in good faith,” Johnson said. “The Congress expressed its will through that vote. And so for the administration to make such a huge deviation in policy without, you know, any consultation with us — and in defiance of what we quite literally just voted on here days ago — to me, it raises a lot of alarm.”

Much more from Ryan and Rachael

ISRAEL HITS BIDEN’S BREAKING POINT — Biden’s “statement was the clearest conditioning of aid that the administration has made since the start of Israel’s war in Gaza,” our colleagues Jonathan Lemire and Jennifer Haberkorn write. “And it sent immediate ripples through national politics, with conservatives accusing the president of abandoning a long-held ally and some liberals hailing the pronouncement.”

It’s hard to overemphasize what a big deal this is. For decades, American presidents from both major parties have supported Israel with few to no questions asked. But Biden and the administration have been increasingly irritated by Netanyahu for months, specifically on the threats to invade Rafah and the number of civilians Israel has killed over the last seven months.

But there’s more nuance than appears at first blush: 

First: The Israeli military is already in Rafah. They’ve been bombing the area for weeks, but haven’t yet mounted a massive ground invasion. Which is why, as POLITICO’s Erin Banco reports, to “aid groups working in Rafah, the debate over Israel’s military operation in southern Gaza looks like only one thing: semantics.”

Second: Though Biden made clear that while he would no longer send the IDF weapons they could use in Rafah, the U.S. will continue to send defensive weapons. 

“We’re going to continue to make sure Israel is secure in terms of Iron Dome and their ability to respond to attacks,” Biden told CNN. “But … it’s just wrong. We’re not going to — we’re not going to supply the weapons and artillery shells.”

At the heart of it, Biden’s warning to Netanyahu is that there are other ways to go after Hamas in Rafah — and those alternatives are the only approaches the White House finds acceptable, a Biden administration official told Playbook last night.

The announcement was welcome news to progressives (e.g. Wisconsin Rep. MARK POCAN) and, increasingly, many center-left Democrats (e.g. Maryland Sen. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN), who’ve agitated for a change in Israel policy for months as the Gaza campaign has raged on. It could also provide relief aboard Biden’s reelection effort, amid ongoing concerns about the president’s standing among young voters, Arab-Americans, Muslim-Americans and liberals in key swing states.

“He's shifting on a really important point here because the moment requires it, and I applaud that. It's a recognition of how dire this moment is,” said MATT DUSS, a former adviser to Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) and the executive VP of the Center for International Policy. “Part of having an effective left that is gaining political power requires that we acknowledge when we when people do what we want, whether it's immediately or eventually. I understand folks who are having a tough time with the fact that this took so long, but I think it's really important, you know, to acknowledge the steps the president is taking now.”

But in no way are Biden’s political woes over. As The Intercept’s RYAN GRIM put it: “The irony is that Biden, after losing the support of everyone who opposed what Israel has been doing, will now lose the support of everyone who loves what Israel is doing. And all the while he facilitated a slaughter of historic proportions. For what?”

Good Thursday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

SPEAKING OF SPEAKERS SPEAKING — KEVIN McCARTHY spoke to POLITICO’s Power Play podcast at the Milken Institute Global Conference, where he offered his perspective on the travails his successor is facing: “Trying to find another person to serve is very, very difficult, and it's chaos for America” if another motion to vacate were to succeed, he told Anne McElvoy. But he added that doesn't mean he would have personally done what Johnson did: "Should I have done a deal? I couldn't live with myself if I did a deal with the Democrats."

TRIAL AND ERRORS — After Trump received another delay in the Georgia case against him yesterday, “what once resembled a wall of legal obstacles that stood between Trump and his return to the White House is now looking like little more than a series of speed bumps,” Josh Gerstein writes.

With procedural delays pending in nearly every case, “the wave of prosecutions don’t seem destined to deliver the kind of legal accountability that Trump’s investigators promised — or the devastating political blow to Trump’s presidential prospects that has animated his detractors since the cases were announced with great fanfare over a five-month span last year.”

Courtroom catch-up: Our colleague Ankush Khardori convened a roundtable of POLITICO’s foremost Trump trial and campaign experts — Ben Feuerherd, Josh Gerstein, Kyle Cheney and Meridith McGraw — to recap all of the action in the criminal hush money case.

The question everyone wants to know: “Will Trump take the stand in his criminal trial?” by NBC’s Dareh Gregorian and Adam Reiss

WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

On the Hill

The Senate will meet at noon to resume consideration of the “Securing Growth and Robust Leadership in American Aviation Act.” Acting Labor Secretary JULIE SU will testify before an Appropriations subcommittee at 10 a.m.

The House is out.

3 things to watch …

  1. The FAA reauthorization saga appears destined to go another week. Rather than stick around on a spring Friday to wait for the Senate to possibly, maybe pass their bill, the House yesterday voted on a one-week extension and split town. That doesn’t mean that the Senate won’t possibly finish up their bill today — an amendment deal is slipping away but still possible — but it does mean final House action won’t come until members get back next week.
  2. During last fall’s House Republican chaos, Rep. MIKE COLLINS (R-Ga.) made himself a name as a voice of wit and levity with his viral tweets. Now he’s going viral for all the wrong reasons. He acknowledged dismay earlier this week after posting and praising a video of the racially tinged taunting of a pro-Palestinian demonstrator at the University of Mississippi, then yesterday posted an unbelievably tasteless tweet about ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. The post remains up 16 hours later.
  3. After their sputtered impeachment attempt against DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS, the House GOP appears to have settled on a familiar target for their next accountability push: AG MERRICK GARLAND. The House Judiciary Committee is poised to vote to hold him in contempt next week, Axios’ Stephen Neukam reports, over his refusal to hand over an audio recording of Biden’s interview with special counsel ROBERT HUR. Here’s the thing: Contempt-of-Congress findings are enforced by federal prosecutors reporting to the U.S. attorney in D.C. who in turn reports to a DOJ official who ultimately reports to … Merrick Garland.

At the White House

Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief in the morning. In the afternoon, Biden, VP KAMALA HARRIS and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will welcome the 2023 WNBA champion Las Vegas Aces to the White House. The president will travel to San Francisco in the evening. Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will gaggle aboard Air Force One en route to California.

PLAYBOOK READS

2024 WATCH

BURGMENTUM MAKES A COMEBACK — North Dakota Gov. DOUG BURGUM is shooting up the shortlist of potential running mates to join Trump on the GOP ticket. “The big question is why,” Natalie Allison writes in a must-read takeout on the mild-mannered contender.

“One of his home state senators, GOP Sen. KEVIN CRAMER, said he was ‘initially surprised’ over Burgum’s ascendance in the veepstakes campaign, ‘because a white male from a state with three electoral votes that haven’t gone to a Democrat since LBJ does not seem to bring a lot of electoral value to the ticket.’

The other bonus: A person familiar with the Trump campaign said the North Dakotan is also a boost on the fundraising circuit. “Burgum, whose Fargo-based tech startup was purchased for $1.1 billion by Microsoft in 2001, is making a significant number of fundraising phone calls, participating in finance meetings and is bringing in new major donors to the campaign, according to the person.”

Speaking of the veepstakes, Trump’s team is “fielding calls from corporate leaders and wealth donors eager to share who they think Trump should tap for a running mate,” CNBC’s Brian Schwartz reports.

Here’s the breakdown on who wants who:

  • Billionaire IKE PERLMUTTER is backing New York Rep. ELISE STEFANIK.
  • RUPERT MURDOCH has “hinted to several friends who move in Trump’s social circles that he would be happy with a Republican ticket that included Virginia Gov. GLENN YOUNGKIN.”
  • GOP megadonor LARRY ELLISON and a cabal of real estate moguls like South Carolina Sen. TIM SCOTT for the slot.

Another name that has been invoked in the VP parlor game is KRISTI NOEM. But the rollout of her book has knocked her down a peg or two — and now that rollout has been cut short, RealClearPolitics’ Philip Wegmann reports.

Noem was due to sit down with RCP for an interview today as part of her book promotion, but ended up “canceling the tour, citing inclement weather.” Noem spokesperson IAN FURY told RCP that the governor “has sold a lot of books on this tour and is back in South Dakota to be prepared for some potential emerging bad weather systems.”

More top reads:

  • The latest Quinnipiac poll out of Wisconsin has a striking result for Biden in the battleground: The president leads Trump 50% to 44% in a head-to-head matchup. Interestingly, though, the race slips from Biden’s grip when third party candidates are introduced. Biden only holds a 40% to 39% edge over Trump with ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. taking 12%, JILL STEIN taking 4% and CORNEL WEST getting 1%. See the full results 
  • Oil and gas lobbyists are drafting ready-to-sign executive orders for Trump in case he returns to the White House, fearing that without their help, the outspokenly pro-fossil-fuel former president would lack the policy depth needed to quickly roll back Biden’s agenda, Ben Lefebvre reports.

THE WHITE HOUSE

MAJOR IMMIGRATION MOVE — Biden administration officials are planning to propose new changes to the asylum system today, our colleagues Daniella Diaz, Myah Ward and Nicholas Wu scooped.

The details: “The forthcoming changes will address the stage at which migrants can be found ineligible to apply for and receive asylum. Under the current system, eligibility is determined based on a number of factors during the interview stage — the administration is set to propose applying these standards during the initial screening stage.

“That change would effectively allow the U.S. to expedite the removal of migrants whom officials see as potentially ineligible to stay in the country due to national security or public safety risks” and DHS is expected to announce the new policy via a proposed rule.

“The announcement is not slated to include several sweeping changes to migration policy that Biden administration officials have weighed, such as using a section of the Immigration and Nationality Act to bar migrants from seeking asylum in between ports of entry. Those larger-scale changes are not expected to get proposed until June at the earliest, according to the four people.”

More top reads:

  • Second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF wants men to stand up in the abortion rights fight, he told NBC’s Yamiche Alcindor in an exclusive interview in Atlanta. “Emhoff, who partnered with a group called Men4Choice to convene a panel in Atlanta, said men must see the fight over abortion access as both a women’s issue and a family issue that affects the fundamental freedoms of all Americans.”

CONGRESS

SCHOOL DAZE — School leaders from New York City, Berkeley, California and Montgomery County, Maryland, were brought before a House Education subcommittee yesterday, where Republicans on the committee excoriated the officials from politically liberal districts for “turning a blind eye” to antisemitism, NYT’s Dana Goldstein, Troy Closson and Michael Levenson report.

But yesterday’s hearing did not produce the same political fireworks as when GOP lawmakers brought the leaders of college institutions to the Hill. “A confluence of factors led to the muted outcome on Wednesday. The hearing was held by a subcommittee with an inexperienced chair, featuring only a cameo by Representative Elise Stefanik of New York, the Republican who led the sharpest questioning of the university presidents. The school leaders also seemed prepared for questions that had tripped up the Harvard and Penn presidents.”

Meanwhile, Pennsylvania GOP Rep. SCOTT PERRY “said in a closed door briefing with lawmakers on Tuesday that the Ku Klux Klan is the ‘the military wing of the Democratic party’ and that migrants coming to the US ‘have no interest in being Americans,’” CNN’s Annie Grayer reports, citing obtained audio of the incident. “Perry, a right-wing Republican who has repeated elements of the anti-immigrant and antisemitic replacement theory before, said this during the House Oversight Committee’s member briefing entitled ‘the Origins and Implications of Rising Antisemitism in Higher Education.’”

There was also this: “Perry then defended replacement theory, which is the idea that white people are being slowly and intentionally replaced by minorities and immigrants. ‘Replacement theory is real,’ Perry said according to the recording shared with CNN. ‘They added white to it to stop everybody from talking about it.’”

More top reads:

PLAYBOOKERS

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is, um, leaning into his brain worms.

Tina Smith has some advice: Don’t mix her up with Tammy Baldwin.

Jack Schlossberg, JFK’s grandson, is the latest Kennedy descendant to take on RFK Jr.

Barron Trump is preparing to make his political debut.

IN MEMORIAM — “Pete McCloskey, Republican Who Tried to Unseat Nixon, Is Dead at 96,” by NYT’s Robert McFadden: “In July 1971, with the nation divided over the war and Nixon heavily favored for re-election, Mr. McCloskey, a 43-year-old Korean War hero and two-term congressman best known for defeating Shirley Temple Black in a special election, launched his quixotic quest for the Republican nomination. He had no money, party support or realistic prospects. But he had gone to Vietnam three times, and in campaign appearances he vividly portrayed the war’s “cruelty and futility,” as he put it, evoking cluster bombs that killed or maimed anyone within 25 acres, and napalm strikes that burned all within 150 feet at 2,000 degrees.”

OUT AND ABOUT — VP Kamala Harris headlined EMILYs List’s annual We Are EMILY Gala last night focusing on the stakes of the 2024 election. SPOTTED: Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Sens. Laphonza Butler (D-Calif.), Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.), Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Tina Smith (D-Minn.), Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), Reps. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.), Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.), Hillary Scholten (D-Mich.), Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas), Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.), Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Del.), Lizzie Fletcher (D-Texas), Lois Frankel (D-Fla.), Nikki Budzinski (D-Ill.), Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, Gabrielle Giffords, Jessica Mackler, Ellen Malcolm, Rebecca Haile, Stephanie Schriock, Emily Cain, Amanda Zurawski, Jacqueline Ayers, Tiffany Muller, Terri McCullough, Gene Karpinski, Greg Speed, Jess McIntosh, Jess O’Connell, Sam Cornale, Reecie Colbert and Olivia Julianna.

— SPOTTED at the Atlantic Council’s Distinguished Leadership Awards dinner at the Waldorf-Astoria, honoring Romanian President Klaus Iohannis, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, Supreme Allied Commander Europe Christopher Cavoli and actress Michelle Yeoh: Adrienne Arsht, Fred Kempe, Jenna Ben-Yehuda, Cynthia Erivo, Gen. John Abizaid, Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), Reps. Cory Mills (R-Fla.) and Michael Waltz (R-Fla.), Australian Ambassador Kevin Rudd, Chilean Ambassador Juan Valdés, Dutch Ambassador Birgitta Tazelaar, Estonian Ambassador Kristjan Prikk, Italian Ambassador Mariangela Zappia, Ukrainian Ambassador Oksana Markarova, James Clapper, Ernest Moniz, Amos Hochstein, Robert Geckle, Annmarie Hordern, Matthew Kaminski, Alex Marquardt, Andrea Mitchell, Greg Myre, Ellen Nakashima, Damian Paletta, Nina Totenberg and Vivian Salama.

— SPOTTED at the 79th anniversary of V-E Day (Victory in Europe) remembrance at the National World War II Memorial co-hosted by the Friends of the National World War II Memorial and the National Park Service yesterday: French Ambassador Laurent Bili, Ukrainian Ambassador Oksana Markarova, Mike Litterst, Lt. Gen. Mick Kicklighter, Bertrand Jardin, William Webster, Frank Cohn, Harry Miller and Travis Gardner.

TRANSITIONS — Tracy Tolk is now a senior policy director in Crowell & Moring’s government affairs group. She previously was a principal at Van Ness Feldman, and is a Hill alum. … Kaleigh Koudela is joining the Children’s Hospital Association as manager of federal affairs. She previously was legislative assistant for Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-Mo.). … Stacy Skelly is joining the Beer Institute as VP of strategic comms. She previously was SVP at The Reis Group. …

… Jamillia Ferris and Matthew McDonald are returning to Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati as partners. Both were previously at Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer, where Ferris was a partner and head of the U.S. antitrust, competition and trade practice and McDonald was counsel in the U.S. antitrust, competition and trade practice. … Cecily Hahn is now senior counsel for Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.). She previously was senior legislative counsel for Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.).

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Fox News’ Dana Perino, Garrett Tenney and Jordan Powell … John McEntee … NYT’s Ezra Klein … N.Y. Mag’s Justin Miller … Joel Kaplan … Parker Poling … White House’s Dhara Nayyar … NBC’s Peter Nicholas … Third Way’s Jon Cowan … Mark Leibovich … Taylor Andreae … POLITICO’s Victoria Guida, Chris ReShore, Madi Alexander and James Romoser … Fabion Seaton … Ashley Schapitl … David Perera … Stu Sandler … Chris Ullman of Ullman Communications … Lauren Decot … Jason Linde of Food Allergy Research & Education … David Gergen … former EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt … John Ashcroft … Kent Knutson … former Rep. Scott McInnis (R-Colo.) … Krystal Knight … Nihal Krishan … Theo LeCompte

Send Playbookers tips to [email protected] or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this newsletter misidentified the state of Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan.