EXCLUSIVE — Independent voters in Colorado’s 8th Congressional District are leaning toward a Republican challenger to incumbent Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-CO), according to a GOP polling memo showing the freshman lawmaker in a vulnerable position in one of the most competitive races of the 2024 cycle.
Despite making history as the first Latina member to represent Colorado in Congress, a majority of voters in the district are either unfamiliar with Caraveo or have no opinion of her, according to the internal survey commissioned by the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Roughly 23% of voters report having a favorable view of Caraveo compared to 16% who responded negatively, according to the poll, first shared with the Washington Examiner. However, an overwhelming 61% say they have no opinion — putting Caraveo in a “dire position,” according to the internal memo.
Caraveo first entered Congress in 2023, though she served as a member of the Colorado state House for four years before that.
“Traditional wisdom says that any incumbent under 50% is vulnerable,” the memo states. “This survey shows Yadira Caraveo under 40%. Caraveo’s ballot position and low name ID combine to create an exceedingly narrow pathway to reelection given the current environment.”
A growing number of independent voters also say they are more likely to back Republican challenger Gabe Evans in the general election. About 41% of independents say they’d back Evans compared to 35% for Caraveo, giving the Republican newcomer a 6-point advantage, according to the poll. Another 25% remain undecided.
That deficit could spell trouble for Caraveo, who won her seat by less than 1 point in 2022. The 8th District race is expected to be one of the most competitive in November, with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rating it as a “tossup.”
As a result, Republicans have viewed the seat as a ripe pickup opportunity to grow their historically slim majority in the House.
Republicans have acknowledged the district has a Democratic lean “in terms of partisanship,” but the party is hoping to capitalize on President Joe Biden’s low approval ratings to target vulnerable Democratic incumbents. Less than half (41%) of voters in the district approve of Biden’s job performance, the poll shows.
That number falls even lower among independents, with only 38% of the voting bloc approving of the job he’s done as president.
The internal poll surveyed 400 likely voters in the 8th District, with a near-even split between Republicans, Democrats, and independents. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 points.
The Washington Examiner contacted the Caraveo campaign for comment.
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All 435 House seats are up for grabs in 2024 as Republicans seek to hold their slim majority in the lower chamber. Of these, 42 are considered competitive, with most held by Democrats, giving the GOP a slight possible advantage as it prepares for the current election cycle.
However, 17 of the 42 are held by Republicans in districts that voted for President Joe Biden in 2020, compared to five Democrats who must defend their seats in districts carried by former President Donald Trump. That means there are just enough vulnerable GOP-held seats to keep things competitive heading into November.
