PRESENTED BYBY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN THE TOPHappy Monday afternoon from the Capitol. NEW: Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) just crushed the timetable for passing President Joe Biden’s legislative agenda. → Manchin called for an immediate vote on the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, which he helped negotiate. “Holding this bill hostage is not going to work in getting my support for [a] reconciliation bill,” Manchin said. → Manchin accused Democratic leaders of engaging in “shell games” to hide the true cost of the reconciliation package: “However, as more of the real details outline the basic framework are released, what I see are shell games, budget gimmicks that make the real cost of the so-called $1.75 trillion bill estimated to be almost twice that amount.” → The West Virginian said Congress “must allow time for complete transparency and analysis on the impact of changes to our tax code and energy and climate policies to ensure that our country is well positioned to remain the superpower of the world.” Time is a finite resource. And Democrats are quickly running out of it. → This is classic Manchin: “I'm open to supporting a final bill that helps move our country forward. But I'm equally open to voting against a bill that hurts our country.” Manchin didn’t answer questions from reporters. This makes a few things crystal clear (if not everything): 1) Manchin is quite ready to kill this bill unless he gets his way. That makes him more powerful than progressive House Democrats, who want infrastructure and reconciliation to pass. Manchin clearly controls the fate of the entire Democratic agenda. 2) We have to imagine that progressives in the House won't agree to pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill right now. Manchin is essentially calling the reconciliation bill a house of mirrors. This is very far from what progressives were looking for. 3) Remember: We still haven’t heard from Sen. Krysten Sinema (D-Ariz.) today. Here is a video of the Manchin statement. Manchin’s declaration comes on top of the concerns we’re already hearing from House moderates on this compressed timetable that Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the White House were hoping for this week. → Several House Democrats and senior aides told us they need to see a Congressional Budget Office and Joint Committee on Taxation score for the Build Back Better Act before voting on it. We get the sense that this is a pretty widespread feeling, especially for moderates and centrists. A full CBO score could take days or weeks. Republicans faced this same issue during debate over their 2017 tax cut, especially in the Senate. → Moderates want assurances that every provision in the BBB could a) pass the “Byrd bath” in the Senate and b) get 51 votes. This will be difficult. The Byrd process can be very complex and difficult to forecast, although Senate Democratic leadership has been at this for a while. But moderate House Democrats don’t want to take a tough vote on a charged issue such as immigration without assurances it will be taken up and passed by the Senate. → Several moderates tell us they will not vote to advance BBB without BIF clearing the House first. → Pelosi has been negotiating directly with Sinema on the outstanding prescription drug provisions. So add these concerns to Manchin's statement, and you'll get a clear picture about why this entire process is in flux. Also: Pelosi is slated to lead a delegation to the COP26 summit in Glasgow next week, adding additional pressure for the House to pass the two central elements of Biden’s agenda. Bloomberg reported this. This is important for several reasons. It’s another datapoint that explains why the House is so eager to get its business done this week. We hear there are several congressional delegation trips scheduled for next week, and no one wants those canceled. And this: Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) on MSNBC, via Sahil Kapur: "We are now awaiting negotiations among senators on [prescription] drug pricing & child care & some details on immigration. But the Progressive Caucus, assuming good resolution of those issues from the Senate side ... will be excited to vote for both bills. … We now feel like we have what we need. We are taking the president's word at the fact that he believes he can get 50 votes in the Senate. And I hope that the two senators that we've been waiting on these months ... understand that this is a leap of faith." → You may ask yourself why Jayapal is suggesting she’s now ready to pass a bill that she wasn’t ready to pass last week. The legislative picture has only gotten more complicated. We think a mix of two dynamics is behind it: Progressives no longer want to be seen as blocking a vote with the election in Virginia coming up OR they know a vote isn’t possible this week, so it costs them nothing to push for consideration now. PRESENTED BY DUKE ENERGY Duke Energy is taking bold steps to address the challenges of climate change, adding more renewables and advanced technology while continuing to deliver affordable, reliable and increasingly clean energy. We’ve set ambitious climate goals for our company, striving toward at least a 50% reduction in CO₂ emissions from electricity generation in 2030 on the way to net-zero CO₂ by 2050. See how we’re creating a cleaner, smarter energy future for our customers and communities. THE NUMBERS Almost two-thirds of Democrats aren’t sold on Biden 2024 Here’s a poll that should raise serious alarm among Democrats and the White House. Nearly two-thirds of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents do not want President Joe Biden to be their party’s nominee in 2024, or are not sure he should be. That comes as Biden is trying to sell his agenda to Congress and, of course, is the standard bearer of the party. 44% of these voters want another person at the top of the ticket in 2024 and the remaining 20% are unsure, according to the NPR-PBS NewsHour-Marist poll. The remaining 36% said they think Democrats have a better chance keeping control of the White House with Biden running for reelection. It doesn’t take a political genius to tell you these numbers are terrible for Biden. Yes, it’s just one poll. But combine this with Biden’s underwater approval ratings and a recent NBC poll that showed 71% of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track, and you get the picture. LAST CHANCE ... Punchbowl News x Rhoback Vests Today is the last day to order an exclusive Punchbowl News x Rhoback vests. Buy it for yourself. Gift it for a friend. Order yours today. PRESENTED BY DUKE ENERGY Duke Energy is transforming our energy infrastructure to deliver cleaner, smarter energy for the communities we serve. Learn more about our bold clean energy commitment. A couple of weeks ago, we brought you a number of ads that attacked J.D. Vance for his past criticism of former President Donald Trump. Well, USA Freedom Fund is out with a new ad slamming the Ohio Senate GOP hopeful. And it’s a weird one. Seizing on Vance’s self-described status as a “flip-flop-flipper,” the 30-second clip features a bizarre jingle that would be more at home in a plumbing ad than a political attack. You’ve got to see this for yourself. Watch it below, courtesy of AdImpact. → Here’s an example of how salient immigration is to the Republican base: Nebraska gubernatorial candidate Charles W. Herbster filmed an ad at the U.S.-Mexico border. “If Joe Biden refuses to do his job, then it's up to governors to do theirs,” Herbster, who Trump endorsed last week, says in the ad. Here’s the clip, courtesy of AdImpact. THIS WEEK What to watch for on the committee level this week → House Financial Services Committee will examine the “Buy-now-pay-later” trend Tuesday at 10 a.m. → Senate Foreign Relations Committee will hear testimony from Tom Barrett, former mayor of Milwaukee, in support of his nomination to be ambassador to Luxembourg; Scott Miller to be ambassador to Switzerland; and Jamie Harpootlian to be ambassador to Slovenia. This hearing is Tuesday at 10 a.m. CLIP FILE NYT → “The Supreme Court hints that it may allow a challenge to the Texas abortion law,” by Adam Liptak → “Home Care Is Broken. Can Congress Fix It?” by Reed Abelson WaPo → “4 in 10 who say election was stolen from Trump say violence might be needed to save America,” by Aaron Blake WSJ → “At COP26, Biden Calls for Climate Action Amid Wide Divisions,” by Matthew Dalton, Catherine Lucey and Sha Hua in Glasgow → “Biden Administration Hopes Bigger Subsidies Will Lure More Consumers to Affordable Care Act Plans,” by Nancy Armour AP → “Biden swings focus of climate effort from US to the world,” by Ellen Knickmeyer, Zeke Miller and Josh Boak |